WEATHER DERIVATIVES – HOW TO GET RICH BETTING ON TEMPERATURES

by Silviu Costinescu

Did you know there’s a weather casino on the global market and each weather report enriches some douchebags? Wouldn’t that incentivize the said douchebags to rig the casino, let’s say through geoengineering, insider info, or simply by faking the reports?


HERE’S HOW YOU CAN BET ON WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES

” Weather derivatives are financial products that are closely linked to weather conditions. This product was created with the aim of reducing the variability of margins due to adverse weather events. Weather derivatives are customizable products: for example, if the temperature recorded in Milan in the winter period negatively affects revenues, through weather derivatives conditions can be managed more efficiently and risks reduced. Moreover, unlike other products, this solution allows to have a clear knowledge of economic exposure: the occurrence of certain weather conditions leads to a cash flow defined previously and limited to a maximum and a minimum. Weather derivatives, with a lower expenditure compared to traditional solutions, allow to protect oneself from risks that cannot be managed with other products.” This is how sellers like Enel advertise for their products. As always, the advertising is false.
If the dealers’ claims were true, the main outcome of this business would be protection and the main beneficiary would be agriculture. The reality sits at the opposite pole of the spectrum: agriculture is one of the least involved in this market, and the main application for this instrument has been financial speculation and gain for the traders.
Speculative trading is also encouraged by the main difference between insurances and weather derivatives: it’s not damage that requires retribution, but unforeseen weather developments. Like a spike in temperatures or a hurricane. Well, hurricanes not so much, since Sandy, they dumped products covering for such events and now it’s almost entirely a temperature-based casino.

“Since the contract is index-based, buyers of weather derivatives do not need to demonstrate a loss. In order to collect insurance, on the other hand, damage must be shown.”

Investopedia

JOIN THE DOTS: WEATHER MANIPULATION + WEATHER BETS = ?

Weather modification and meteorological warfare have been a preoccupation for governments around the world since quite a while now, there’s recorded meetings of the US Congress debating these topics since 1950’s. But recently it’s become a private business too. You can even buy the perfect weather for your wedding nowadays. I also know directly from the crew that worked on the Cold Mountain movie that they had weather modification on emergency call because they were losing production money waiting for a rain that was predicted by meteorologists and never came naturally.
So the question in the headline above is a no-brainer, I’m not going to insult your intelligence by answering it.
Instead I’m going to quote an witty anonymous comment on Internet: “So all we have to do is check the CME on weather derivatives to see if there is a spike in purchases & we’ll know if we have a major weather event about to happen?”

IT GETS BETTER… I MEAN WORSE!

There’s a video below with a muppet “expert” from the weather casino claiming you can’t abuse the system with “superior information” because meteorologists can only predict accurately a few weeks ahead. Right. I thought we have computer models that tell us beyond any doubt what’s up in 2030 and we only have 18 months to live on the planet due to Global Warming, blah blah… Is that BS then? If so, no probs buddy, that’s not the only way to predict things, best way is to fulfill your own prophecies. As suggested above. And you can get help from your partners in politics.
Barack Obama announced in 2013 that he had signed S. 716, which repealed a requirement of the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act requiring high-ranking federal employees to disclose their financial information online.
“Versions of the STOCK Act had been introduced for several years, but it was fast-tracked at the Capitol following media reports that suggested members of Congress might have profited from private information obtained during their legislative work. Members singled out in the reports maintained their innocence, but the spotlight spurred quick action on enacting legislation emphasizing that members of Congress be subject to insider trading laws among their disclosure enhancements”, according to media reports.
So if you have access to intelligence on weather manipulation and geophysical warfare, as conducted by your own government, you’re in for a new nice villa on some tropical island. And that won’t be unprecedented.

WE HAVE THE MOTIVES, THE WEAPONS AND THE SUSPECTS. HOW BIG IS THE HEIST?

The expert in the video below says that no less than 1/3 of the US GDP is weather dependent. I say pretty much every walk of life is weather-dependent and I got back-up:

Weather is not just an environmental issue, it is a major economic factor. At least $1 trillion of our economy is weather-sensitive.

Investopedia

“Weather conditions tend to affect volume and usage more than they directly affect the price. An exceptionally warm winter, for example, can leave utility and energy companies with excess supplies of oil or natural gas (because people need less to heat their homes). Or an exceptionally cold summer can leave hotel and airline seats empty. Although the prices may change somewhat as a consequence of unusually high or low demand, price adjustments don’t necessarily compensate for lost revenues resulting from unseasonable temperatures” – from the same Investopedia article.
Bottom line: weather is business and the sky is no limit to how much money you can make.


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